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Overview

This feasibility study was commissioned by Nurminen Logistics to assess the current status, challenges, and opportunities of the railway sector in Southern Africa, particularly in Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The overarching objective was to support informed decision-making for potential investment and operational involvement in regional rail corridors.

It covered a range of areas including the condition of physical infrastructure and rolling stock, operational performance, intermodal connections, dry port development, technology modernization, regulatory frameworks, key role players, funding mechanisms, and regional integration efforts.

Key Findings at a Glance

The rail systems across the seven countries have irregular infrastructure quality, with some corridors such as the Lobito (covering Angola, DRC, Zambia) and Nacala (covering Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia) showing signs of ongoing modernization, while other corridors remain constrained by aging assets, poor maintenance, and weak operational performance. Intermodal connections are fragmented, dry port infrastructure is limited, and signaling systems are largely outdated with minimal centralized traffic control (CTC). Despite these limitations, the sector has key clients including Ivanhoe Mines and Trafigura on the Lobito Corridor, Illovo Sugar Malawi and Shayona Cement on the Nacala line (Malawi side), Vulcan Mozambique and Jindal on the Sena/Nacala line (Mozambique), Zimasco and PPC Zimbabwe on NRZ, and Botash and Khoemacau Copper in Botswana. These clients illustrate the potential scale of bulk freight, mineral exports, and agro-industrial flows that railways are positioned to serve, presenting opportunities for targeted investment.

The regulatory landscape is disjointed across the selected countries, with varying levels of private sector participation, inconsistent customs and border clearance procedures, and underdeveloped safety and environmental enforcement. However, regional frameworks such as those under SADC and national efforts to improve rail access policies give hope for harmonization possibilities in the future.

Strategic opportunities in brief

Several high-potential opportunities are apparent, particularly in supporting corridor-based operations, rolling stock leasing and refurbishment, dry port development, and the introduction of digital traffic planning systems. Countries such as Angola, Mozambique, and Zambia are actively inviting private sector participation, including through public-private partnerships (PPPs). These opportunities are closely tied to the needs of major active and potential shippers and in copper, cobalt, coal, sugar, cement, lithium, and petroleum imports.

Overview

TETA Research Chair activities were concluded in 2025 across the five tranches, in alignment with the project implementation plan, reporting obligations, and the financial provisions of the contract. The objectives of the project were to advance sectoral knowledge and capacity through targeted research, postgraduate support, and industry-aligned training in transport and logistics focus areas. The project delivered: (i) two short learning programmes (Green Transport; Drone Systems & Applications in 4IR) with training and certification; (ii) two research studies (Impact of TETA funded programmes & training needs per chamber; Discrete Choice Modelling of Gauteng residents鈥� travel behaviour) with draft and final reports, presentations, and datasets; and (iii) a peer reviewed journal article and conference participation as evidence of dissemination.

Under the Postgraduate Bursary workstream, four postgraduate bursaries were awarded鈥攖wo Master鈥檚 and two PhD candidates鈥攚hose research addressed priority topics in transport and supply chain management.

For the research projects, the fifirst study on the Impact of TETA-funded programmes assessed the adequacy across eight chambers, considering 4IR, governance, and future skills needs. A convergent mixed-methods design drew on surveys (23 employers, 73 beneficiaries), three focus groups (38 participants), and workshops in Cape Town, Durban, and Johannesburg. Programmes were seen as relevant and productivity-enhancing, but challenges identified included retention, mentorship and funding constraints, certification delays, communication gaps, and a skills鈥揹emand mismatch; stakeholders also flagged limited TVET engagement, data-system gaps, and inclusion barriers. Recommendations called for tighter industry/4IR alignment, more WIL/internships and mentorship, stronger soft-skills and work-readiness, prompt certification and stipends, better data systems and TVET partnerships, regular stakeholder engagement, and clearer job-placement pathways.

For the second research study 鈥� Discrete Choice Modelling: Travel Behaviour of Gauteng Residents, the project examined pathways for South Africa (and sub-Saharan peers) to meet sustainability goals while improving access for the poor by shifting travel from private cars to sustainable modes. A stated-preference, best鈥搘orst survey of Gauteng commuters (workers and adult students) captured current/alternative trips and key attributes (cost, time, access/egress, waiting, transfers, perceived safety). A random-utility best鈥搘orst model estimated preferences and willingness to pay. Safety dominated valuations; willingness to pay for a 鈥渧ery safe鈥� service was >4脳 that for a one-hour time saving. Elasticities indicated safety improvements would most strongly shift demand to public transport, while fare increases disproportionately deterred low-income users. No systematic behavioural differences were found between workers and students. Improving safety, reliability and convenience were found to be central to mode shift in Gauteng; while targeted, performance-linked reforms can deliver a more sustainable, inclusive transport system. The team submitted a research report, structured in line with contractual requirements. A peer-reviewed journal article was written and published, with proof provided, and conference registration and attendance had been completed, with proceedings submitted to TETA.

Within Industry Capacity Development, two short learning programmes had been designed and delivered. The Green Transport programme materials were developed, and training sessions were conducted for 100 participants. Likewise, Drone Systems & Applications in 4IR materials were developed and delivered to 100 participants.

The TETA Research Chair activities strengthened the sector鈥檚 evidence base by completing two major studies addressing programme impact, training needs, and urban travel behaviour. Industry capacity was enhanced through the delivery of the Green Transport and Drone Systems & 4IR short learning programmes, evidenced by attendance registers, and issued certificates. Scholarly dissemination had been achieved via a published journal article and conference participation, which had broadened the reach of findings. The recommendations tabled to TETA committees informed policy refinement and programme implementation discussions. The consortium developed a practical roadmap to sustain the benefits of the work: data and materials had been archived for reuse; partners were briefed on applying the recommendations; and responsibilities for follow-on engagement have been documented.